IDC Has New Predictions for the Smartphone Market

Marina Astapchik
IT Trends Research Specialist
July 27, 2011

However unpredictable the world of smart phones, mobile platforms and app development may be, the researchers dare to make long-term forecasts in this area and give specific figures. And this I think is natural, because for example Apple and Google have already determined specific sales expectations for the years to come and are heading towards them.

The study by market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) shows how the mobile operating systems market will be shared by all interested parties by the year 2015.

As is evident from the table, Android is still the smartphone market leader, although it cannot boast a high growth rate. This can be probably explained by the fact that there is tough competition at the market. Further expansion will be difficult for Android. The market share of BlackBerry will apparently remain almost unchanged in the coming years.

Symbian will gradually loose its importance and will have a tiny market share in 2015, making it an outsider. The Nokia’s recent deal with Microsoft does not help the fall of Symbian either. The first smartphones with Windows Phone Mango will be presented in late 2011. As the result, if the move to Windows Phone 7 goes well, which will take about 2 years, according to IDC, by 2015 this operating system will have the largest annual growth rate, being the rising star on the smartphone sky.

iOS will change by 2015 its market share only slightly. The situation is similar to BlackBerry, and promises no surprises.

On the overall, the smartphone market will grow annually by about 20 percent. In other words, the number of smartphones sold in 2011 (450 million) will grow to a billion in 2015.

Thus, most of the changes will be related to such platforms as Windows Phone and Symbian. We will soon see whether these predictions come true.


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